Investors excited about emerging markets, including Brazil. (Yasuyoshi Chiba/Getty Images) |
Where some see dross, others spy gold. Case in point: BRICs.
BRICs — primarily Brazil, Russia, India and China — comprise some of the largest and most-developed global emerging markets, not fared well overall this year. But they are once again being considered by investors as they take a closer look at some battered, and possibly bargain-priced, stocks.
Overall, many investors have been fleeing emerging markets. For the first seven months of the year, emerging market equity funds had a net outflow of $4.5 billion, as global investors scurried back to the US and Europe, lured by the idea that US interest rates could rise — a boon to investment returns — if the Federal Reserve winds down its long-running stimulus program, as widely expected.
But the decline among emerging markets stocks may be leaving some golden buying opportunities, say some experts, especially among the BRICs. Those powerhouse economies, including the core four BRIC countries, have strong fundamentals that can insulate them from some of the broader volatility. Those fundamentals include a large and expanding middle class and increasingly sophisticated, acquisition-minded companies.
They also have strong gross domestic production (GDP), the measure of the value of goods and services produced within the country’s borders. Overall, measured by purchasing-price-parity adjusted GDP, emerging markets will create $1.6 trillion more goods and services than advanced markets in 2013, according to the International Monetary Fund.
“Cheap”
The overall decline among emerging markets stocks may be leaving some golden buying opportunities
A recent JP Morgan Asset Management emerging market research report noted that BRIC stocks currently look quite “cheap,” as country valuations hover near the bottom end of historical valuation ranges. All four BRIC countries will have higher GDP growth than the US this year, according to JP Morgan.
China and Russia have relatively low debt, 31% and 12%, respectively. And China’s ample international reserves total nearly $3.5 trillion. Both countries’ GDPs are also growing: China’s growth will hit 8% this year, Russia’s 3.4%.
Though there’s no sign of a comeback yet — for the first seven months of this year, the MSCI BRIC Index has plummeted 11.21% — some investors and big emerging market mutual funds, like ones run by T Rowe Price, are bargain hunting.
“We accept some risk in short-term pain,” said Todd Henry, emerging market equity portfolio specialist at Maryland-based T Rowe Price. “But opportunity is there in growth.”
BRIC stocks make up nearly 50% of The T Rowe Price Emerging Markets Stock Fund’s $7.2 billion in assets. The fund is adding to its BRIC holdings, especially the Russian and Indian stock allocations.
Chinese stocks also don’t look expensive right now, Henry said. In late August, the MSCI China Index price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) — a measure of how expensive a stock is — was only 9.75, versus 11.90 for emerging markets. Currently, the fund favours environmental companies such as wind producer China Longyuan Power Group Corp Ltd and gas company Beijing Enterprises.
Despite India’s plummeting rupee, the country is also high on some investors emerging market stock lists.
“India is becoming a huge buying opportunity,” said Peter Kohli, president of Pennsylvania-based DMS Funds. “The stock market is just taking a breather, but it will come back again.”
The reason, he added, is that India has about 10 years of above-average growth left, partly driven by a huge, acquisition-minded middle class. Indian multinational companies such as Tata Group, Wipro Ltd and Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd will have strong earnings, he said. A depreciated rupee means these companies are now on sale for emerging market investors, he added.
Who should invest?
Bedevilled by wild swings, emerging markets are typically best as part of well-diversified portfolios, or for value-hungry investors with reasonably long investment horizons. The small sizes of most emerging market economies mean they are vulnerable to the vagaries of global investors.
“In the past, these huge investor inflows have helped prop up countries like Thailand and Vietnam,” said Jonathan Galaviz, a managing director at the Nevada-based strategy and research consultancy Galaviz & Co. “For this reason, economies in Asia have been over-heating for the past five years.”
That is beginning to change. For instance, Thailand’s GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.2% in 2014 from 5.9% this year.
Unlike smaller emerging markets, BRICs benefit from being big, diversified economies with highly liquid markets. Even so, they’re best played by using ETFs, say many experts. There are several BRIC ETFs to choose from, including country-specific ones like Market Vectors Russia ETF or the iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF.
Alan Miller, chief investment officer at the London-based investment management firm SCM Private, also prefers ETFs. A contrarian investor, he is eyeballing investments in emerging market BRICs like Russia. One reason: The MSCI Russia Index P/E is only 5. “Yet Russia’s earnings growth isn’t falling off a cliff,” he added.
Some other emerging market experts are looking further afield. Philippe Carre, global head of connectivity for SunGard’s Global Trading Business, says that some Eastern Europe countries, especially Poland and Rumania, are becoming star performers. These post-Soviet countries are seeing their exchanges grow, as more companies are listed.
Yet even Carre isn’t immune to the lures of some of the BRICs. “It’s hard to avoid economic locomotives like China,” he said.
John Kerry holds a news conference with leaders from the Arab League in Paris |
US Secretary of State John Kerry is meeting Arab League leaders in Paris as part of a European tour to gather support for intervention in Syria.
Earlier Mr Kerry said the number of nations prepared to take military action was now in "double digits", but the list has not been made public.
France strongly supports intervention in response to the use of chemical weapons in Damascus last month.
But it wants to wait for a report by UN weapons experts before taking action.
From Paris, Mr Kerry will travel to London where he will meet the Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas and British Foreign Secretary William Hague.
Meanwhile, inside Syria, there are reports that rebel forces have taken control of the historic Christian town of Maalula, north of Damascus.
Abdel Rahman, the director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based activist group, told the AFP news agency that troops loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad had withdrawn form the area.
'Silent spectators'
During a news conference with his French counterpart Laurent Fabius on Saturday, Mr Kerry said the world could not be "silent spectators to slaughter" after Syria's alleged use of chemical weapons against its civilians.
The US accuses Mr Assad's forces of killing 1,429 people in a sarin gas attack on 21 August.
Repeating a phrase he used earlier in the week, Mr Kerry said the international community was facing a "Munich moment" - a reference to the policy of appeasement that failed to stop Nazi Germany in the 1930s.
"We in the United States know, and our French partners know, that this is not the time to be silent spectators to slaughter," he said.
He insisted there was growing support for Washington's call for intervention in Syria, saying: "There are a number of countries, in the double digits, who are prepared to take military action."
This was more countries than could actually be used "in the kind of military action being contemplated", Mr Kerry added.
Mr Fabius - who staunchly backs Mr Kerry on this issue - added that there was "wide and growing support" for action.
Earlier on Saturday, in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius, Mr Kerry welcomed a statement on Syria by EU foreign ministers who were meeting there.
The EU ministers urged a "clear and strong response" to the alleged chemical attack.
But the EU also welcomed French President Francois Hollande's call to wait for the UN weapons inspectors' report before taking any further action.
Mr Hollande said he expected the report to be ready by next weekend.
Meanwhile the BBC has learnt that the UK government has sent chemical protection suits to some members of the opposition forces in Syria this week, as it continues to give technical and non-lethal aid to members of the Syrian national coalition.
'Defeat for humanity'
Mr Kerry's visit to Europe comes amid deep divisions over whether to take military action in Syria.
The G20 summit in Russia last week failed to produce international agreement, with US President Barack Obama at odds with Russia's President Vladimir Putin, who blames the gas attack on rebels.
Both Russia and China, which have refused to agree to a UN Security Council resolution against Syria, insist any military action without the UN would be illegal.
President Obama now faces a tough week of trying to persuade Congress to authorise military action.
He has only a few days to convince Congress, which returns from its summer recess on Monday. Both the Senate and House of Representatives could vote on the Syrian issue later this week.
A poll commissioned by the BBC and ABC News suggested more than a third of Congress members were undecided whether or not to back military action - and a majority of those who had made a decision said they would vote against the president.
Many remain concerned that military action could draw the US into a prolonged war and spark broader hostilities in the region.
Some 100,000 people have already been killed in the two-and-a-half-year-old Syrian conflict, according to the UN.