What’s Rick Perry big announcement going to be? A look at the odds
Rick Perry promises to announce “exciting future plans” this afternoon in San Antonio. So what’s the Texas governor going to tell us?
Predicting Rick Perry’s future is more risky than wearing burnt orange to an Aggie bonfire.
But that won’t deter your bold team at Texas on the Potomac.
After consulting with academics and political consultants from both parties, here are our odds for Perry’s potential announcements:
Chooses not to run for re-election as governor, says he’s contemplating a presidential run (3:2 odds, 40 percent probability)
Most Austin pundits believe Perry, the longest-serving governor in Texas history, won’t run for another term. (What more can he accomplish?) But his high-profile embrace of the abortion issue has ‘em thinking he has his eye on the White House.
Announces he will run for a fourth full term as governor (4:1 odds, 20 percent probability)
He’s said it many times: Rick Perry loves serving as governor. Some prominent Republicans have seen their political careers wither as they’ve waited for Perry to move on (or tried to dislodge him). Running for re-election wouldn’t foreclose a future presidential campaign. In fact, it might help Perry with fundraising.
Says he won’t run for governor or president (5:1 odds, 16 percent probability)
Y’all remember how his 2012 presidential campaign went. And he could face a tough GOP primary for governor in 2014. Perry’s not likely to hang up his political spurs today, but you can’t count it out.
Chooses not to run for re-election, doesn’t comment on a presidential run (7:1 odds, 12 percent probability)
Perry can play coy. You’ve all seen that. He’s more likely to say he’s thinking about a presidential run. But he might just quote Scarlett O’Hara and declare that “tomorrow is another day.”
Makes an announcement completely unrelated to seeking political office (9:1 odds, 10 percent probability)
The gov does like to confound all of us. Now that he’s managed to get the state’s (and nation’s) attention, he can say anything he wants. It might not have anything to do with running for office.
Chooses not to run for re-election, announces his presidential candidacy (50:1 odds, 2 percent probability)
Why shouldn’t Perry be the first Republican to announce his 2016 candidacy? After all, he admitted that he waited way too long in 2011 before announcing. On the other hand, this might be a little bit too early.
Announces his resignation (1000:1 odds, infinitesimal probability)
Who knows? Perry could be offered a lucrative CEO job, the directorship of a major conservative think tank, boss of the Boy Scouts or some other opportunity he just can’t turn down. Highly, highly unlikely, but we leave this option open for folks who like to bet on real longshots.
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